US and Iran on Brink of War: Will They Reach a Deal to Reopen Hormuz?

Will the US and Iran reach a deal to end their nearly seven-month conflict? Negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war, which would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran. But neither side wants to be the first to surrender its leverage, and the talks face a big obstacle. A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade. The US has said it's open to talking with Iran under the right circumstances, but has control of the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian economy that's "collapsing". A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices, and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices. But the leverage that brought Washington and Tehran back to negotiations could also make compromise harder. If Washington and Tehran cannot turn leverage into a deal before the midterms, the diplomatic window could narrow as the risk of escalation grows. The Iranian official said, "Our fingers are on the trigger," and the Americans know what they need to do but, because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low. 

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